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icon for Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?
Geopolitik·Waffenruhe Im Iran

Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?

icon for Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?
Geopolitik·Waffenruhe Im Iran

Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?

$1,486,508 Vol.

30. Juni 2026
Polymarket

$1,486,508 Vol.

Polymarket

31. Mai

$1,212,580 Vol.

2%

30. Juni

$198,922 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces have sustained a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon after the April 2026 ceasefire, while conducting ongoing airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and rejecting full withdrawal without prior disarmament of the group. Recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, along with U.S. involvement, have produced only temporary lulls in fighting rather than binding commitments on troop pullbacks. Traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by late May or June 2026 deadlines because Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani River and Israeli officials have tied any exit to verifiable security guarantees. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire framework remain the main variables that could shift the timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$1,486,508
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces have sustained a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon after the April 2026 ceasefire, while conducting ongoing airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and rejecting full withdrawal without prior disarmament of the group. Recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, along with U.S. involvement, have produced only temporary lulls in fighting rather than binding commitments on troop pullbacks. Traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by late May or June 2026 deadlines because Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani River and Israeli officials have tied any exit to verifiable security guarantees. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire framework remain the main variables that could shift the timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$1,486,508
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „30. Juni" mit 10%, gefolgt von „31. Mai" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 10¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 10% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $1.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 16, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 3 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" ist „30. Juni" mit 10%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 10% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. Mai" mit 2%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.