The US-brokered June 2026 trilateral framework agreement sequences any full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon to verified Lebanese army deployment, Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River, and dismantlement of militant infrastructure. Israeli forces have continued fortifying positions and conducting operations while preparing for a potential handover to the Lebanese army by the extended February 2027 deadline, though talks remain stalled over border demarcation, prisoner issues, and five disputed sites. UNIFIL’s mandate expires December 31, 2026, with the force beginning drawdown and raising concerns about a security vacuum. Traders price later 2027 dates highest because progress hinges on Lebanese implementation amid ongoing Israeli security requirements and Hezbollah resistance to sequenced steps.