China has already conducted notable ballistic missile tests in 2026, including a July SLBM launch from a Jin-class submarine into the South Pacific that drew regional rebukes for limited advance notice. Subsequent months have featured PLA bomber drills with JL-1 missiles and DF-17 hypersonic training firings earlier in the year, but no fresh ICBM or SLBM launches into international waters or near contested areas like Taiwan. Diplomatic pushback from Pacific nations, combined with routine annual training cycles rather than crisis-driven escalations, has kept activity at measured levels without signs of imminent tests through year-end. Traders price the absence of near-term catalysts—such as heightened Taiwan Strait tensions or new U.S. policy shifts—as supporting the strong consensus against a launch by December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertStart der ballistischen Rakete Chinas bis zum 31. Dezember?
Start der ballistischen Rakete Chinas bis zum 31. Dezember?
Ja
21% Chance
$10,945 Vol.
$10,945 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
21% Chance
$10,945 Vol.
$10,945 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China has already conducted notable ballistic missile tests in 2026, including a July SLBM launch from a Jin-class submarine into the South Pacific that drew regional rebukes for limited advance notice. Subsequent months have featured PLA bomber drills with JL-1 missiles and DF-17 hypersonic training firings earlier in the year, but no fresh ICBM or SLBM launches into international waters or near contested areas like Taiwan. Diplomatic pushback from Pacific nations, combined with routine annual training cycles rather than crisis-driven escalations, has kept activity at measured levels without signs of imminent tests through year-end. Traders price the absence of near-term catalysts—such as heightened Taiwan Strait tensions or new U.S. policy shifts—as supporting the strong consensus against a launch by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volumen
$10,945Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China has already conducted notable ballistic missile tests in 2026, including a July SLBM launch from a Jin-class submarine into the South Pacific that drew regional rebukes for limited advance notice. Subsequent months have featured PLA bomber drills with JL-1 missiles and DF-17 hypersonic training firings earlier in the year, but no fresh ICBM or SLBM launches into international waters or near contested areas like Taiwan. Diplomatic pushback from Pacific nations, combined with routine annual training cycles rather than crisis-driven escalations, has kept activity at measured levels without signs of imminent tests through year-end. Traders price the absence of near-term catalysts—such as heightened Taiwan Strait tensions or new U.S. policy shifts—as supporting the strong consensus against a launch by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$10,945Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...China has already conducted notable ballistic missile tests in 2026, including a July SLBM launch from a Jin-class submarine into the South Pacific that drew regional rebukes for limited advance notice. Subsequent months have featured PLA bomber drills with JL-1 missiles and DF-17 hypersonic training firings earlier in the year, but no fresh ICBM or SLBM launches into international waters or near contested areas like Taiwan. Diplomatic pushback from Pacific nations, combined with routine annual training cycles rather than crisis-driven escalations, has kept activity at measured levels without signs of imminent tests through year-end. Traders price the absence of near-term catalysts—such as heightened Taiwan Strait tensions or new U.S. policy shifts—as supporting the strong consensus against a launch by December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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