Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's post-war consolidation under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February-April 2026 US-Israel conflict and Ali Khamenei's assassination. Despite April rumors of IRGC power grabs sidelining President Pezeshkian and negotiators—framed by analysts as militarization rather than overthrow plots—no verified military defections, leadership challenges, or organized internal plots have emerged in the past 30 days. IRGC loyalty has quelled 2025-2026 protests via crackdowns and executions, while recent diplomatic proposals to end the US naval blockade signal focus on endurance over upheaval. Escalation from stalled talks or economic collapse could shift dynamics, but current stability underpins low coup risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,115,031 Vol.
$1,115,031 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$1,115,031 Vol.
$1,115,031 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's post-war consolidation under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February-April 2026 US-Israel conflict and Ali Khamenei's assassination. Despite April rumors of IRGC power grabs sidelining President Pezeshkian and negotiators—framed by analysts as militarization rather than overthrow plots—no verified military defections, leadership challenges, or organized internal plots have emerged in the past 30 days. IRGC loyalty has quelled 2025-2026 protests via crackdowns and executions, while recent diplomatic proposals to end the US naval blockade signal focus on endurance over upheaval. Escalation from stalled talks or economic collapse could shift dynamics, but current stability underpins low coup risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,115,031Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's post-war consolidation under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February-April 2026 US-Israel conflict and Ali Khamenei's assassination. Despite April rumors of IRGC power grabs sidelining President Pezeshkian and negotiators—framed by analysts as militarization rather than overthrow plots—no verified military defections, leadership challenges, or organized internal plots have emerged in the past 30 days. IRGC loyalty has quelled 2025-2026 protests via crackdowns and executions, while recent diplomatic proposals to end the US naval blockade signal focus on endurance over upheaval. Escalation from stalled talks or economic collapse could shift dynamics, but current stability underpins low coup risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,115,031Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's post-war consolidation under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February-April 2026 US-Israel conflict and Ali Khamenei's assassination. Despite April rumors of IRGC power grabs sidelining President Pezeshkian and negotiators—framed by analysts as militarization rather than overthrow plots—no verified military defections, leadership challenges, or organized internal plots have emerged in the past 30 days. IRGC loyalty has quelled 2025-2026 protests via crackdowns and executions, while recent diplomatic proposals to end the US naval blockade signal focus on endurance over upheaval. Escalation from stalled talks or economic collapse could shift dynamics, but current stability underpins low coup risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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