Ongoing protests across all Iranian provinces since late 2025, coupled with severe economic strain from sanctions and war damage following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have tested regime stability without triggering collapse. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained loyalty and control, enabling a swift leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and containment of unrest despite high casualties and elite infighting. Traders price an 84% probability against regime fall by mid-2027 because these pressures have not produced the security force defections or elite fractures historically required for such outcomes, though further escalation or sustained economic decline could alter dynamics before the resolution window closes.