**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-64 tweets (45.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk over August 24-26, followed by 65-89 (35.5%), reflecting expectations of moderate activity around two scheduled SpaceX Starlink Falcon 9 launches.** Recent patterns show steady engagement, including multiple posts on August 22 reacting to Tesla FSD coverage, without the spikes tied to major controversies or product unveilings. The launches on the 24th and 25th provide a natural catalyst for commentary, yet the weekend timing and absence of high-stakes personal or corporate announcements keep volumes from surging into higher brackets. Historical similar markets and current X activity support this range as the baseline, with traders pricing in limited upside risk from unexpected events.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert40-64 45%
65-89 36%
<40 10%
90-114 8.5%
NEU
NEU
26. Aug. 2026
<40
10%
40-64
45%
65-89
36%
90-114
9%
115-139
5%
140-164
3%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 45%
65-89 36%
<40 10%
90-114 8.5%
NEU
NEU
26. Aug. 2026
<40
$149 Vol.
10%
40-64
$255 Vol.
45%
65-89
$173 Vol.
36%
90-114
$212 Vol.
9%
115-139
$251 Vol.
5%
140-164
$140 Vol.
3%
165-189
$294 Vol.
1%
190-214
$126 Vol.
1%
215-239
$192 Vol.
1%
240+
$132 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-64 tweets (45.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk over August 24-26, followed by 65-89 (35.5%), reflecting expectations of moderate activity around two scheduled SpaceX Starlink Falcon 9 launches.**
Recent patterns show steady engagement, including multiple posts on August 22 reacting to Tesla FSD coverage, without the spikes tied to major controversies or product unveilings. The launches on the 24th and 25th provide a natural catalyst for commentary, yet the weekend timing and absence of high-stakes personal or corporate announcements keep volumes from surging into higher brackets. Historical similar markets and current X activity support this range as the baseline, with traders pricing in limited upside risk from unexpected events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$1,925Enddatum
26. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-64 tweets (45.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk over August 24-26, followed by 65-89 (35.5%), reflecting expectations of moderate activity around two scheduled SpaceX Starlink Falcon 9 launches.**
Recent patterns show steady engagement, including multiple posts on August 22 reacting to Tesla FSD coverage, without the spikes tied to major controversies or product unveilings. The launches on the 24th and 25th provide a natural catalyst for commentary, yet the weekend timing and absence of high-stakes personal or corporate announcements keep volumes from surging into higher brackets. Historical similar markets and current X activity support this range as the baseline, with traders pricing in limited upside risk from unexpected events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$1,925Enddatum
26. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-64 tweets (45.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk over August 24-26, followed by 65-89 (35.5%), reflecting expectations of moderate activity around two scheduled SpaceX Starlink Falcon 9 launches.** Recent patterns show steady engagement, including multiple posts on August 22 reacting to Tesla FSD coverage, without the spikes tied to major controversies or product unveilings. The launches on the 24th and 25th provide a natural catalyst for commentary, yet the weekend timing and absence of high-stakes personal or corporate announcements keep volumes from surging into higher brackets. Historical similar markets and current X activity support this range as the baseline, with traders pricing in limited upside risk from unexpected events.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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