Florida's open-seat 2026 gubernatorial race reflects the state's sustained Republican partisan advantage and trifecta control, with no Democratic governor elected since 1994. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads the August 18 Republican primary by wide margins in recent polling averages near 47 percent, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. Likely Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, trails Donalds by 6–9 points in early August general election surveys. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, anchoring trader consensus at an 83 percent implied probability for a GOP victory on November 3 amid consistent voter registration edges and historical statewide patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$34,404 Vol.
$34,404 Vol.

Republikaner
83%

Demokrat
17%
$34,404 Vol.
$34,404 Vol.

Republikaner
83%

Demokrat
17%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's open-seat 2026 gubernatorial race reflects the state's sustained Republican partisan advantage and trifecta control, with no Democratic governor elected since 1994. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads the August 18 Republican primary by wide margins in recent polling averages near 47 percent, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. Likely Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, trails Donalds by 6–9 points in early August general election surveys. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, anchoring trader consensus at an 83 percent implied probability for a GOP victory on November 3 amid consistent voter registration edges and historical statewide patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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