Current forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Chengdu's July 3 maximum likely falling in the 30–33°C range, with 32°C edging ahead in trader consensus due to recent GFS and ECMWF runs projecting peak afternoon heating under partly cloudy skies. The closely matched probabilities around 29–32°C reflect uncertainty from potential scattered thunderstorms or increased cloud cover in the Sichuan basin, which can limit insolation and cap temperatures below seasonal norms. High humidity typical of early July monsoon patterns further modulates perceived and measured highs, while historical July averages near 30–31°C provide a baseline. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution before market close.