Current forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime peak near 25–26°C in Madrid on October 5 under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, supporting the market's strong consensus around those levels. Recent observations show surface temperatures climbing into the mid-20s amid light southerly flow and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer warmth persisting into early October. This exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 22°C but aligns with elevated readings in several recent years. Thunderstorm timing and intensity remain the key variables that could cap the maximum below 25°C or allow a brief spike higher, with official station data from AEMET expected to resolve the market by day's end.