Recent model guidance for Madrid shows a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures on September 12, with ensemble spreads from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System placing the most likely outcomes between 30–35 °C. This flat distribution in market-implied odds reflects modest uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast, driven by the strength and position of a subtropical ridge, potential for minor Atlantic moisture advection, and local factors such as urban heat retention and clear-sky radiative heating. Historical September climatology for the city center supports highs near 28–32 °C as a baseline, yet short-term variability in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction can shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Updated model runs and observational data from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 12. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 12. September?
32°C 52%
31°C 29%
33°C 18%
30°C 17%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
27°C oder weniger
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
5%
30°C
17%
31°C
29%
32°C
52%
33°C
18%
34°C
17%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C oder höher
2%
32°C 52%
31°C 29%
33°C 18%
30°C 17%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
27°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
17%
31°C
$56 Vol.
29%
32°C
$104 Vol.
52%
33°C
$0 Vol.
18%
34°C
$0 Vol.
17%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance for Madrid shows a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures on September 12, with ensemble spreads from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System placing the most likely outcomes between 30–35 °C. This flat distribution in market-implied odds reflects modest uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast, driven by the strength and position of a subtropical ridge, potential for minor Atlantic moisture advection, and local factors such as urban heat retention and clear-sky radiative heating. Historical September climatology for the city center supports highs near 28–32 °C as a baseline, yet short-term variability in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction can shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Updated model runs and observational data from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$160Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance for Madrid shows a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures on September 12, with ensemble spreads from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System placing the most likely outcomes between 30–35 °C. This flat distribution in market-implied odds reflects modest uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast, driven by the strength and position of a subtropical ridge, potential for minor Atlantic moisture advection, and local factors such as urban heat retention and clear-sky radiative heating. Historical September climatology for the city center supports highs near 28–32 °C as a baseline, yet short-term variability in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction can shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Updated model runs and observational data from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$160Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance for Madrid shows a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures on September 12, with ensemble spreads from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System placing the most likely outcomes between 30–35 °C. This flat distribution in market-implied odds reflects modest uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast, driven by the strength and position of a subtropical ridge, potential for minor Atlantic moisture advection, and local factors such as urban heat retention and clear-sky radiative heating. Historical September climatology for the city center supports highs near 28–32 °C as a baseline, yet short-term variability in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction can shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Updated model runs and observational data from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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