Trader consensus around a 34–36°C peak for Shenzhen on August 12 reflects ensemble forecast agreement on modest warm advection under a strengthening subtropical high, tempered by typical summer monsoon moisture and possible sea-breeze moderation along the coast. Slight edges for 35°C arise from model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and daytime insolation under partly cloudy conditions, while lower probabilities for 33°C or below signal limited cooling from any passing short-wave trough. Historical August maxima near 34–35°C and current sea-surface temperatures provide the climatological baseline, with next model runs and observational updates likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 12. August?
35°C 38%
34°C 30%
36°C 19%
33°C 12%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
3%
32°C
5%
33°C
12%
34°C
30%
35°C
38%
36°C
19%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
1%
35°C 38%
34°C 30%
36°C 19%
33°C 12%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
28°C or below
$383 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$383 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$162 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$121 Vol.
3%
32°C
$166 Vol.
5%
33°C
$161 Vol.
12%
34°C
$129 Vol.
30%
35°C
$1,596 Vol.
38%
36°C
$85 Vol.
19%
37°C
$144 Vol.
4%
38°C or higher
$233 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around a 34–36°C peak for Shenzhen on August 12 reflects ensemble forecast agreement on modest warm advection under a strengthening subtropical high, tempered by typical summer monsoon moisture and possible sea-breeze moderation along the coast. Slight edges for 35°C arise from model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and daytime insolation under partly cloudy conditions, while lower probabilities for 33°C or below signal limited cooling from any passing short-wave trough. Historical August maxima near 34–35°C and current sea-surface temperatures provide the climatological baseline, with next model runs and observational updates likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$3,563Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around a 34–36°C peak for Shenzhen on August 12 reflects ensemble forecast agreement on modest warm advection under a strengthening subtropical high, tempered by typical summer monsoon moisture and possible sea-breeze moderation along the coast. Slight edges for 35°C arise from model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and daytime insolation under partly cloudy conditions, while lower probabilities for 33°C or below signal limited cooling from any passing short-wave trough. Historical August maxima near 34–35°C and current sea-surface temperatures provide the climatological baseline, with next model runs and observational updates likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,563Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around a 34–36°C peak for Shenzhen on August 12 reflects ensemble forecast agreement on modest warm advection under a strengthening subtropical high, tempered by typical summer monsoon moisture and possible sea-breeze moderation along the coast. Slight edges for 35°C arise from model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and daytime insolation under partly cloudy conditions, while lower probabilities for 33°C or below signal limited cooling from any passing short-wave trough. Historical August maxima near 34–35°C and current sea-surface temperatures provide the climatological baseline, with next model runs and observational updates likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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