Recent forecasts from global and regional models indicate clear skies and stable high pressure over Tokyo for October 10, favoring maximum temperatures in the narrow 24–25°C range under light northeasterly winds. October 8’s observed high of 25°C under similar conditions provides a recent analog, while typical early-October climatology shows daytime peaks near 23–24°C before seasonal cooling accelerates. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak insolation timing separate the two leading outcomes, with 26°C requiring stronger warming than current guidance supports. Updated JMA and ensemble runs expected overnight will refine the final resolution.