Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 12–13°C in Warsaw on October 15 under mostly cloudy to broken skies with northwest winds of 3–4 m/s. This aligns with the climatological average high of roughly 12–13°C for mid-October and supports the market’s leading 13°C outcome at 48.5% implied probability. Light precipitation chances below 25% and stable high pressure near 1026 hPa limit warming potential, while overnight lows near 6–8°C further constrain the daily range. Minor model spreads allow for a possible 14°C peak if clearing occurs earlier, consistent with the 14% probability attached to that outcome. Official resolution will depend on verified observations from Polish meteorological stations.