Recent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert50k – 100k 44%
0 – 50 Tsd. 43%
150.000 – 200.000 41%
100.000 – 150.000 40%
<0
11%
0 – 50 Tsd.
43%
50k – 100k
44%
100.000 – 150.000
40%
150.000 – 200.000
41%
200.000+
38%
50k – 100k 44%
0 – 50 Tsd. 43%
150.000 – 200.000 41%
100.000 – 150.000 40%
<0
11%
0 – 50 Tsd.
43%
50k – 100k
44%
100.000 – 150.000
40%
150.000 – 200.000
41%
200.000+
38%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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