India's latest CPI data, with April 2026 inflation rising to 3.48% from 3.40% in March amid higher food prices, combined with upward revisions to full-year forecasts such as Goldman Sachs' 4.2% projection, underpin the 81.5% market-implied odds on the 4.50%+ outcome for annual inflation in 2026. Base effects from the unusually low readings throughout 2025, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's reaffirmed 4% target within a 2-6% band through 2031 and a new CPI series with reduced food weights, have shifted trader consensus toward moderate reacceleration. Normal monsoon assumptions and contained global commodity pressures support expectations that inflation will settle near or above this threshold, while lower-probability buckets reflect scenarios of persistent disinflation or policy surprises.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 82%
1,50 % bis 2,24 % 9.7%
2,25 % bis 2,99 % 7.2%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 7.1%
$60,622 Vol.
$60,622 Vol.
12. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
2%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
10%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
7%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
7%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
10%
4,50 %+
82%
4,50 %+ 82%
1,50 % bis 2,24 % 9.7%
2,25 % bis 2,99 % 7.2%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 7.1%
$60,622 Vol.
$60,622 Vol.
12. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
$806 Vol.
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
$525 Vol.
2%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
$415 Vol.
10%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
$23,764 Vol.
7%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
$517 Vol.
7%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
$23,340 Vol.
10%
4,50 %+
$11,254 Vol.
82%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia's latest CPI data, with April 2026 inflation rising to 3.48% from 3.40% in March amid higher food prices, combined with upward revisions to full-year forecasts such as Goldman Sachs' 4.2% projection, underpin the 81.5% market-implied odds on the 4.50%+ outcome for annual inflation in 2026. Base effects from the unusually low readings throughout 2025, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's reaffirmed 4% target within a 2-6% band through 2031 and a new CPI series with reduced food weights, have shifted trader consensus toward moderate reacceleration. Normal monsoon assumptions and contained global commodity pressures support expectations that inflation will settle near or above this threshold, while lower-probability buckets reflect scenarios of persistent disinflation or policy surprises.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$60,622Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia's latest CPI data, with April 2026 inflation rising to 3.48% from 3.40% in March amid higher food prices, combined with upward revisions to full-year forecasts such as Goldman Sachs' 4.2% projection, underpin the 81.5% market-implied odds on the 4.50%+ outcome for annual inflation in 2026. Base effects from the unusually low readings throughout 2025, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's reaffirmed 4% target within a 2-6% band through 2031 and a new CPI series with reduced food weights, have shifted trader consensus toward moderate reacceleration. Normal monsoon assumptions and contained global commodity pressures support expectations that inflation will settle near or above this threshold, while lower-probability buckets reflect scenarios of persistent disinflation or policy surprises.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$60,622Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...India's latest CPI data, with April 2026 inflation rising to 3.48% from 3.40% in March amid higher food prices, combined with upward revisions to full-year forecasts such as Goldman Sachs' 4.2% projection, underpin the 81.5% market-implied odds on the 4.50%+ outcome for annual inflation in 2026. Base effects from the unusually low readings throughout 2025, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's reaffirmed 4% target within a 2-6% band through 2031 and a new CPI series with reduced food weights, have shifted trader consensus toward moderate reacceleration. Normal monsoon assumptions and contained global commodity pressures support expectations that inflation will settle near or above this threshold, while lower-probability buckets reflect scenarios of persistent disinflation or policy surprises.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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