Skip to main content
icon for Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Politics·Likud

Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

icon for Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Politics·Likud

Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

85% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
85% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 22–25 seats, down from its 32 seats in the 2022 election.** Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Yossi Tatika, Lazar, and Kantar in June 2026 show the party trailing its prior performance amid sustained voter fatigue after prolonged conflicts, economic pressures, and Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trials. Opposition alliances, including mergers involving Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and rising support for figures like Gadi Eisenkot, have consolidated anti-incumbent votes, with anti-Netanyahu Zionist blocs often polling near or above the 61-seat majority threshold. Netanyahu's Likud has reaffirmed his candidacy, yet these trends have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 82.5% implied probability for seat losses.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$1,779
Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 22–25 seats, down from its 32 seats in the 2022 election.** Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Yossi Tatika, Lazar, and Kantar in June 2026 show the party trailing its prior performance amid sustained voter fatigue after prolonged conflicts, economic pressures, and Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trials. Opposition alliances, including mergers involving Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and rising support for figures like Gadi Eisenkot, have consolidated anti-incumbent votes, with anti-Netanyahu Zionist blocs often polling near or above the 61-seat majority threshold. Netanyahu's Likud has reaffirmed his candidacy, yet these trends have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 82.5% implied probability for seat losses.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$1,779
Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel election: will Likud lose seats?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 85% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 85¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 85%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Israel election: will Likud lose seats?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Apr 29, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Israel election: will Likud lose seats?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Israel election: will Likud lose seats?" liegt bei 85% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel election: will Likud lose seats?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.