**The 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” on an engagement by year-end reflects the couple’s measured public timeline since their July 2025 meeting during Perry’s Lifetimes Tour.** They confirmed their relationship in October 2025 and made a red-carpet debut at the June 2026 Tribeca premiere of her concert film, with Perry recently describing Trudeau as “the love of my life” and crediting him as an emotional anchor after her split from Orlando Bloom. As of mid-September 2026, they remain visibly together—vacationing in Saint-Tropez, attending events, and integrating families—yet no verified reports or statements indicate an imminent proposal. Both maintain high-profile careers and prior children, creating natural pacing considerations that traders appear to weigh heavily against a resolution in the remaining months of 2026.