No confirmed reports or official statements support Kylie Jenner expecting a child in 2026, which underpins the market's 63% implied probability on "No." Persistent social media rumors linking her to a pregnancy with Timothée Chalamet have been repeatedly traced to unverified parody accounts and dismissed by fact-checks through mid-August. Jenner has historically controlled such news on her own timeline, sharing details only after private preparation as with Stormi and Aire. Traders weigh this established privacy approach and absence of credible industry signals more heavily than unsubstantiated chatter. Any direct Instagram post, family statement, or verified red-carpet appearance remains the key catalyst that could shift sentiment.