Recent forecast consensus from regional models points to a lowest temperature near 12–13°C in Buenos Aires on October 9, driven by persistent southeasterly flow and extensive low-level cloud cover that limits daytime heating and radiative cooling overnight. These conditions follow several days of unsettled weather with light rain, maintaining moderate dew points and suppressing both cold-air advection from the south and warm-air intrusion from the north. Model spreads remain modest for the 48-hour window, yet small shifts in wind speed or cloud timing could alter the minimum by 1–2°C, sustaining tight market pricing between the sub-10°C and 19°C+ brackets while centering probability on the 12–14°C outcomes. Updated runs from official agencies will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.