**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and other models points to an overnight low in the low-to-mid 80s for Dallas on August 25, 2026, amid ongoing extreme heat.** Persistent southerly flow advects warm, humid air from the Gulf, limiting nocturnal cooling under mostly clear skies, while light winds (5–10 mph) reduce mixing that could otherwise allow sharper drops. Recent days have featured similar conditions, with observed lows in the lower 80s and daytime highs exceeding 105°F. This setup creates tight clustering in market-implied odds around 82–87°F bins because small differences in forecast dew points, cloud cover, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the minimum by a degree or two. NWS guidance specifically cites a low near 82°F for Tuesday night, while other model outputs range 83–85°F, reflecting typical ensemble spread in a stable, high-pressure regime. Historical August norms (average low ~76°F) underscore how anomalous the current warmth is, but traders are pricing the near-term persistence of these elevated minima until a frontal shift or increased moisture arrives later in the week. Upcoming NWS updates and any revised model runs tonight will be the key near-term catalysts.