Short-term Hong Kong Observatory forecasts point to overnight lows of 26–29°C on July 11 under typical subtropical July conditions of elevated humidity and light winds that limit radiative cooling, producing closely matched trader-implied probabilities of 19.5–21% across those outcomes. Model consensus shows modest spread from variable cloud cover or isolated showers that could shave 1–2°C from the minimum, while the agency’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures aligns with climatological July minima near 27°C. Upcoming updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine the range as the date approaches.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Hongkong am 11. Juli?
28°C 42%
29°C 33%
27°C 16%
26°C 4.9%
$18,516 Vol.
$18,516 Vol.
22°C oder weniger
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
16%
28°C
42%
29°C
33%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C oder höher
<1%
28°C 42%
29°C 33%
27°C 16%
26°C 4.9%
$18,516 Vol.
$18,516 Vol.
22°C oder weniger
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
16%
28°C
42%
29°C
33%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term Hong Kong Observatory forecasts point to overnight lows of 26–29°C on July 11 under typical subtropical July conditions of elevated humidity and light winds that limit radiative cooling, producing closely matched trader-implied probabilities of 19.5–21% across those outcomes. Model consensus shows modest spread from variable cloud cover or isolated showers that could shave 1–2°C from the minimum, while the agency’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures aligns with climatological July minima near 27°C. Upcoming updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine the range as the date approaches.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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