Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and regional models indicate Mexico City’s overnight low on October 8 will likely fall between 12–14 °C amid persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. Trader-implied odds near 50 % for both sub-7 °C and 17 °C+ extremes reflect genuine forecast uncertainty around the precise minimum, driven by small differences in predicted dew-point depression, wind mixing, and the timing of any clearing. Historical October minima average near 10–11 °C, yet the present moist pattern and elevated pressure support milder readings; updated model runs and local station observations over the next 48 hours will narrow the range and shift the market-implied probabilities accordingly.