Recent forecast models from GFS and other sources indicate Tel Aviv's October 13 minimum will likely fall between 21–23°C, driven by a stable high-pressure system promoting clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that limit nocturnal cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread due to variable low-level humidity and subtle shifts in the Mediterranean sea breeze, which can raise or suppress overnight lows by 1–2°C. Historical climatology places the typical daily minimum near 21°C this time of year, while current ensemble runs highlight low probability of extremes below 19°C or above 25°C absent unexpected frontal passages. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution thresholds before market close.