Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 12. Juli?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 12. Juli?
25°C 50%
24°C 21%
26°C 17%
27°C 4.2%
NEU
NEU
12. Juli 2026
20°C oder weniger
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C
21%
25°C
50%
26°C
17%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C oder höher
<1%
25°C 50%
24°C 21%
26°C 17%
27°C 4.2%
NEU
NEU
12. Juli 2026
20°C oder weniger
$132 Vol.
1%
21°C
$87 Vol.
2%
22°C
$25 Vol.
3%
23°C
$25 Vol.
2%
24°C
$8 Vol.
21%
25°C
$91 Vol.
50%
26°C
$33 Vol.
17%
27°C
$5 Vol.
4%
28°C
$65 Vol.
1%
29°C
$142 Vol.
1%
30°C oder höher
$583 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$1,195Enddatum
12. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,195Enddatum
12. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen