Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and European guidance points to a high-pressure system (around 1027 hPa) over Warsaw on October 13, promoting clear to mostly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and radiative cooling that should drive the overnight minimum into the 5–7°C range. This autumnal cooling follows a milder early October pattern, with dew points near 5–6°C limiting further drops absent stronger clear-sky conditions. The near-even market split between 0°C or below and 10°C or higher reflects uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the low by several degrees; lighter winds favor deeper cooling toward the lower end of that envelope while any increase in low-level moisture or wind would support readings closer to 8–9°C. Updated overnight model runs and surface observations will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.