Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.62 trillion reflects strong recent momentum from July 2026 earnings, which delivered a record single-day gain of nearly $450 billion on upbeat Azure growth guidance exceeding 45%. Traders assign balanced 50% implied probabilities across bins from below $2.5 trillion to above $5 trillion by year-end, underscoring uncertainty in AI-driven revenue expansion versus elevated capital spending on data centers and infrastructure. Key swing factors include subsequent quarterly results, broader tech sector multiples, Federal Reserve policy on rates, and competitive positioning against peers in cloud and generative AI. With only five months remaining, any shift in Azure constant-currency growth or macroeconomic data releases could materially alter the distribution of market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert<2,50 Bio. $ 0
2,50–3,00 Billionen US-Dollar 0
3,00–3,50 Billionen US-Dollar 0
3,50–4,00 Bio. $ 0
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
<2,50 Bio. $
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2,50–3,00 Billionen US-Dollar
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3,00–3,50 Billionen US-Dollar
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3,50–4,00 Bio. $
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4,00–4,50 Bio. $
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4,50–5,00 Billionen US-Dollar
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5,00+ Billionen US-Dollar
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<2,50 Bio. $ 0
2,50–3,00 Billionen US-Dollar 0
3,00–3,50 Billionen US-Dollar 0
3,50–4,00 Bio. $ 0
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
<2,50 Bio. $
$0 Vol.
-
2,50–3,00 Billionen US-Dollar
$0 Vol.
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3,00–3,50 Billionen US-Dollar
$0 Vol.
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3,50–4,00 Bio. $
$0 Vol.
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4,00–4,50 Bio. $
$0 Vol.
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4,50–5,00 Billionen US-Dollar
$0 Vol.
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5,00+ Billionen US-Dollar
$0 Vol.
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This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.62 trillion reflects strong recent momentum from July 2026 earnings, which delivered a record single-day gain of nearly $450 billion on upbeat Azure growth guidance exceeding 45%. Traders assign balanced 50% implied probabilities across bins from below $2.5 trillion to above $5 trillion by year-end, underscoring uncertainty in AI-driven revenue expansion versus elevated capital spending on data centers and infrastructure. Key swing factors include subsequent quarterly results, broader tech sector multiples, Federal Reserve policy on rates, and competitive positioning against peers in cloud and generative AI. With only five months remaining, any shift in Azure constant-currency growth or macroeconomic data releases could materially alter the distribution of market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.62 trillion reflects strong recent momentum from July 2026 earnings, which delivered a record single-day gain of nearly $450 billion on upbeat Azure growth guidance exceeding 45%. Traders assign balanced 50% implied probabilities across bins from below $2.5 trillion to above $5 trillion by year-end, underscoring uncertainty in AI-driven revenue expansion versus elevated capital spending on data centers and infrastructure. Key swing factors include subsequent quarterly results, broader tech sector multiples, Federal Reserve policy on rates, and competitive positioning against peers in cloud and generative AI. With only five months remaining, any shift in Azure constant-currency growth or macroeconomic data releases could materially alter the distribution of market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.62 trillion reflects strong recent momentum from July 2026 earnings, which delivered a record single-day gain of nearly $450 billion on upbeat Azure growth guidance exceeding 45%. Traders assign balanced 50% implied probabilities across bins from below $2.5 trillion to above $5 trillion by year-end, underscoring uncertainty in AI-driven revenue expansion versus elevated capital spending on data centers and infrastructure. Key swing factors include subsequent quarterly results, broader tech sector multiples, Federal Reserve policy on rates, and competitive positioning against peers in cloud and generative AI. With only five months remaining, any shift in Azure constant-currency growth or macroeconomic data releases could materially alter the distribution of market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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