Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no Gemini Pro release by August 31 because Google has repeatedly delayed its flagship 3.5 Pro model—originally targeted for June after May’s I/O announcement—and continues to ship only lighter variants such as the 3.7 Flash model made generally available on August 13. The current production Pro tier remains the 3.1 Pro preview from February, with official documentation still listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” after months of internal testing and partner evaluation. No credible reports or executive statements signal an imminent Pro launch in the final two weeks of August, while Google’s recent cadence favors incremental Flash updates over frontier Pro releases. This pattern of slippage, combined with the absence of pre-release benchmarks or API listings, underpins the strong market consensus against a near-term drop.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo release by August 31 85.5%
August 27 4.1%
August 26 4.0%
August 31 3.9%
$266,709 Vol.
$266,709 Vol.
10. Aug. 2026
August 16
<1%
August 17
1%
August 18
1%
August 19
1%
August 20
1%
August 21
1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
1%
August 24
1%
August 25
1%
August 26
4%
August 27
4%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
1%
August 31
4%
No release by August 31
86%
No release by August 31 85.5%
August 27 4.1%
August 26 4.0%
August 31 3.9%
$266,709 Vol.
$266,709 Vol.
10. Aug. 2026
August 16
$2,611 Vol.
<1%
August 17
$3,756 Vol.
1%
August 18
$3,980 Vol.
1%
August 19
$3,146 Vol.
1%
August 20
$2,786 Vol.
1%
August 21
$2,259 Vol.
1%
August 22
$2,686 Vol.
<1%
August 23
$1,954 Vol.
1%
August 24
$4,463 Vol.
1%
August 25
$5,389 Vol.
1%
August 26
$4,370 Vol.
4%
August 27
$8,567 Vol.
4%
August 28
$4,001 Vol.
1%
August 29
$4,785 Vol.
<1%
August 30
$2,318 Vol.
1%
August 31
$7,638 Vol.
4%
No release by August 31
$50,421 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no Gemini Pro release by August 31 because Google has repeatedly delayed its flagship 3.5 Pro model—originally targeted for June after May’s I/O announcement—and continues to ship only lighter variants such as the 3.7 Flash model made generally available on August 13. The current production Pro tier remains the 3.1 Pro preview from February, with official documentation still listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” after months of internal testing and partner evaluation. No credible reports or executive statements signal an imminent Pro launch in the final two weeks of August, while Google’s recent cadence favors incremental Flash updates over frontier Pro releases. This pattern of slippage, combined with the absence of pre-release benchmarks or API listings, underpins the strong market consensus against a near-term drop.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volumen
$266,709Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no Gemini Pro release by August 31 because Google has repeatedly delayed its flagship 3.5 Pro model—originally targeted for June after May’s I/O announcement—and continues to ship only lighter variants such as the 3.7 Flash model made generally available on August 13. The current production Pro tier remains the 3.1 Pro preview from February, with official documentation still listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” after months of internal testing and partner evaluation. No credible reports or executive statements signal an imminent Pro launch in the final two weeks of August, while Google’s recent cadence favors incremental Flash updates over frontier Pro releases. This pattern of slippage, combined with the absence of pre-release benchmarks or API listings, underpins the strong market consensus against a near-term drop.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$266,709Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no Gemini Pro release by August 31 because Google has repeatedly delayed its flagship 3.5 Pro model—originally targeted for June after May’s I/O announcement—and continues to ship only lighter variants such as the 3.7 Flash model made generally available on August 13. The current production Pro tier remains the 3.1 Pro preview from February, with official documentation still listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” after months of internal testing and partner evaluation. No credible reports or executive statements signal an imminent Pro launch in the final two weeks of August, while Google’s recent cadence favors incremental Flash updates over frontier Pro releases. This pattern of slippage, combined with the absence of pre-release benchmarks or API listings, underpins the strong market consensus against a near-term drop.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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