Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by recent reports of missed revenue and user growth targets that rattled investors and highlighted escalating AI infrastructure costs exceeding $600 billion annually. CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly advocating a delay to 2027 to address financial reporting gaps and capex sustainability, clashing with CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 ambitions, amid no S-1 filing as of mid-May. The company's $852 billion private valuation post-March's record $122 billion raise faces public market scrutiny over profitability amid an enterprise pivot, with Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit adding regulatory uncertainty. Key catalysts include potential S-1 progress or Q2 revenue disclosures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$269,122 Vol.
$269,122 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$269,122 Vol.
$269,122 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by recent reports of missed revenue and user growth targets that rattled investors and highlighted escalating AI infrastructure costs exceeding $600 billion annually. CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly advocating a delay to 2027 to address financial reporting gaps and capex sustainability, clashing with CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 ambitions, amid no S-1 filing as of mid-May. The company's $852 billion private valuation post-March's record $122 billion raise faces public market scrutiny over profitability amid an enterprise pivot, with Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit adding regulatory uncertainty. Key catalysts include potential S-1 progress or Q2 revenue disclosures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volumen
$269,122Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by recent reports of missed revenue and user growth targets that rattled investors and highlighted escalating AI infrastructure costs exceeding $600 billion annually. CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly advocating a delay to 2027 to address financial reporting gaps and capex sustainability, clashing with CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 ambitions, amid no S-1 filing as of mid-May. The company's $852 billion private valuation post-March's record $122 billion raise faces public market scrutiny over profitability amid an enterprise pivot, with Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit adding regulatory uncertainty. Key catalysts include potential S-1 progress or Q2 revenue disclosures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volumen
$269,122Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by recent reports of missed revenue and user growth targets that rattled investors and highlighted escalating AI infrastructure costs exceeding $600 billion annually. CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly advocating a delay to 2027 to address financial reporting gaps and capex sustainability, clashing with CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 ambitions, amid no S-1 filing as of mid-May. The company's $852 billion private valuation post-March's record $122 billion raise faces public market scrutiny over profitability amid an enterprise pivot, with Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit adding regulatory uncertainty. Key catalysts include potential S-1 progress or Q2 revenue disclosures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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