Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and enhanced agentic coding capabilities, has driven the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds that the company holds the leading large language model by the end of May. Independent leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis and LiveCodeBench currently rank its models highest in reasoning and complex task performance, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant and Google's Gemini 3.1 variants that launched earlier this month. Traders view these benchmark gains and consistent developer feedback as durable advantages in the short timeframe remaining. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google advancing multimodal reasoning or efficiency metrics could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require unusually rapid iteration given typical release cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,678,934 Vol.
$8,678,934 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
91%
8%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,678,934 Vol.
$8,678,934 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$624,999 Vol.
91%
$573,450 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$724,219 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$533,095 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$539,977 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$503,728 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$512,124 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$656,050 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$517,535 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,917 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$469,788 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$401,673 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,634 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,904 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$412,851 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and enhanced agentic coding capabilities, has driven the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds that the company holds the leading large language model by the end of May. Independent leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis and LiveCodeBench currently rank its models highest in reasoning and complex task performance, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant and Google's Gemini 3.1 variants that launched earlier this month. Traders view these benchmark gains and consistent developer feedback as durable advantages in the short timeframe remaining. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google advancing multimodal reasoning or efficiency metrics could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require unusually rapid iteration given typical release cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$8,678,934Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and enhanced agentic coding capabilities, has driven the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds that the company holds the leading large language model by the end of May. Independent leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis and LiveCodeBench currently rank its models highest in reasoning and complex task performance, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant and Google's Gemini 3.1 variants that launched earlier this month. Traders view these benchmark gains and consistent developer feedback as durable advantages in the short timeframe remaining. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google advancing multimodal reasoning or efficiency metrics could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require unusually rapid iteration given typical release cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$8,678,934Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and enhanced agentic coding capabilities, has driven the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds that the company holds the leading large language model by the end of May. Independent leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis and LiveCodeBench currently rank its models highest in reasoning and complex task performance, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant and Google's Gemini 3.1 variants that launched earlier this month. Traders view these benchmark gains and consistent developer feedback as durable advantages in the short timeframe remaining. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google advancing multimodal reasoning or efficiency metrics could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require unusually rapid iteration given typical release cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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