**Elite wide receivers such as Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Amon-Ra St. Brown headline pass-heavy offenses entering the 2026 season, yet consensus projections peg even the top options for roughly 9–11 receiving touchdowns.** Chase has publicly targeted Randy Moss’s longstanding 23-touchdown record from 2007, citing his prior 17-TD campaign, while strong quarterback play from Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and others could create red-zone volume. At the same time, 17-game schedules, defensive adjustments, injury risk, and typical touchdown distributions have kept single-season totals well below 20 for nearly two decades. Trader sentiment at 50% implied probability for a record-breaker reflects this tension between historic upside in modern passing attacks and the steep statistical barriers that have held since Moss’s mark. A sustained stretch of health, extreme target concentration, or league-wide scoring inflation could shift odds toward yes, while typical regression or key absences would reinforce the no side.