The Reserve Bank of Australia's August 2026 decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous vote anchors the 91.5% implied probability of no change at the September 29 meeting, reflecting persistent above-target inflation that the RBA projects will only reach the 2–3% midpoint in late 2027 amid upside risks from capacity pressures and commodity prices. Recent data showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, consumer spending and housing momentum softening, and financial conditions already tightened after three 2026 hikes support the market's view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without needing immediate adjustment. Traders price only a slim chance of a 25 basis point hike, as incoming figures would need to show markedly stronger wage or price pressures to shift the Board from its data-dependent stance. A sharper labor market deterioration or subdued Q3 inflation print could introduce modest cut odds, though both remain distant given the central bank's forward guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo change 92%
25 bps increase 6.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$21,154 Vol.
$21,154 Vol.
29. Sep. 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
92%
25 bps increase
6%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 92%
25 bps increase 6.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$21,154 Vol.
$21,154 Vol.
29. Sep. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$673 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,762 Vol.
<1%
No change
$13,690 Vol.
92%
25 bps increase
$2,569 Vol.
6%
50+ bps increase
$460 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Reserve Bank of Australia's August 2026 decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous vote anchors the 91.5% implied probability of no change at the September 29 meeting, reflecting persistent above-target inflation that the RBA projects will only reach the 2–3% midpoint in late 2027 amid upside risks from capacity pressures and commodity prices. Recent data showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, consumer spending and housing momentum softening, and financial conditions already tightened after three 2026 hikes support the market's view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without needing immediate adjustment. Traders price only a slim chance of a 25 basis point hike, as incoming figures would need to show markedly stronger wage or price pressures to shift the Board from its data-dependent stance. A sharper labor market deterioration or subdued Q3 inflation print could introduce modest cut odds, though both remain distant given the central bank's forward guidance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volumen
$21,154Enddatum
29. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Reserve Bank of Australia's August 2026 decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous vote anchors the 91.5% implied probability of no change at the September 29 meeting, reflecting persistent above-target inflation that the RBA projects will only reach the 2–3% midpoint in late 2027 amid upside risks from capacity pressures and commodity prices. Recent data showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, consumer spending and housing momentum softening, and financial conditions already tightened after three 2026 hikes support the market's view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without needing immediate adjustment. Traders price only a slim chance of a 25 basis point hike, as incoming figures would need to show markedly stronger wage or price pressures to shift the Board from its data-dependent stance. A sharper labor market deterioration or subdued Q3 inflation print could introduce modest cut odds, though both remain distant given the central bank's forward guidance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,154Enddatum
29. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Reserve Bank of Australia's August 2026 decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous vote anchors the 91.5% implied probability of no change at the September 29 meeting, reflecting persistent above-target inflation that the RBA projects will only reach the 2–3% midpoint in late 2027 amid upside risks from capacity pressures and commodity prices. Recent data showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, consumer spending and housing momentum softening, and financial conditions already tightened after three 2026 hikes support the market's view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without needing immediate adjustment. Traders price only a slim chance of a 25 basis point hike, as incoming figures would need to show markedly stronger wage or price pressures to shift the Board from its data-dependent stance. A sharper labor market deterioration or subdued Q3 inflation print could introduce modest cut odds, though both remain distant given the central bank's forward guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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