Rocket Lab’s August 2026 earnings update and SEC filing shifted emphasis to Q4 pad delivery of the Neutron medium-lift vehicle at Wallops rather than a confirmed launch, explicitly noting the window for a 2026 liftoff is narrowing due to pending first-stage qualification, static-fire tests, and other critical milestones. Prior setbacks, including a January tank rupture that already delayed the program, plus the company’s stated priority on achieving rapid post-debut cadence over rushing flight one, underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds against a December 31 launch. While perfect test outcomes could theoretically enable a late-year attempt, the compressed remaining timeline and historical schedule slips make that outcome unlikely.