Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic as the clear leader for the best AI model by end of October, with its 85% implied probability reflecting recent model releases and benchmark gains that have outpaced competitors in areas like reasoning and safety. OpenAI, Google, and others sit below 6% as traders price in slower progress on key capability thresholds and tighter competitive positioning among frontier labs. Upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations before October could still shift sentiment, though current market-implied odds indicate strong conviction that Anthropic maintains its edge through demonstrated performance rather than speculation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 85%
Google 6.1%
OpenAI 5.7%
SpaceXAI 4.3%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
85%
6%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
4%
Meituan
2%
Microsoft
2%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Anthropic 85%
Google 6.1%
OpenAI 5.7%
SpaceXAI 4.3%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$4,515 Vol.
85%
$175 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$192 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$301 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$217 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$172 Vol.
2%
Meta
$182 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$249 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$196 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$187 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$204 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$209 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$219 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$199 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$193 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$166 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$186 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$199 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$199 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$199 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic as the clear leader for the best AI model by end of October, with its 85% implied probability reflecting recent model releases and benchmark gains that have outpaced competitors in areas like reasoning and safety. OpenAI, Google, and others sit below 6% as traders price in slower progress on key capability thresholds and tighter competitive positioning among frontier labs. Upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations before October could still shift sentiment, though current market-implied odds indicate strong conviction that Anthropic maintains its edge through demonstrated performance rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$8,545Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic as the clear leader for the best AI model by end of October, with its 85% implied probability reflecting recent model releases and benchmark gains that have outpaced competitors in areas like reasoning and safety. OpenAI, Google, and others sit below 6% as traders price in slower progress on key capability thresholds and tighter competitive positioning among frontier labs. Upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations before October could still shift sentiment, though current market-implied odds indicate strong conviction that Anthropic maintains its edge through demonstrated performance rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$8,545Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic as the clear leader for the best AI model by end of October, with its 85% implied probability reflecting recent model releases and benchmark gains that have outpaced competitors in areas like reasoning and safety. OpenAI, Google, and others sit below 6% as traders price in slower progress on key capability thresholds and tighter competitive positioning among frontier labs. Upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations before October could still shift sentiment, though current market-implied odds indicate strong conviction that Anthropic maintains its edge through demonstrated performance rather than speculation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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