Recent opinion polls for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election show the SPD consistently ahead of BSW, with SPD support at 6–7% and BSW at 4–5% across multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and pollytix. SPD maintains a modest but stable lead in voter intention data, reflecting its position as the junior partner in the incumbent CDU–SPD–FDP coalition and established brand recognition in the state. BSW, a newer formation, trails narrowly and remains closer to the 5% parliamentary threshold, with limited upward movement in the final weeks before voting. Trader consensus at 89.5% for SPD therefore tracks the persistent polling gap between the two parties and the absence of late-campaign shifts that would reverse their relative standing.