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icon for Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder AfD?
Welt·Berlin

Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder AfD?

icon for Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder AfD?
Welt·Berlin

Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder AfD?

CDU

70% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

CDU

70% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a tight multi-party contest, with CDU support holding steady near 19-20% and AfD in the high teens, typically trailing or level with CDU and Linke. CDU benefits from its position as the largest party in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner and from structural advantages in Berlin's electorate compared to AfD's stronger eastern state performance. AfD gains nationally have lifted its Berlin numbers into contention for the first time, yet recent surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap indicate CDU maintains a modest edge over AfD. Trader pricing at 67.5% for CDU reflects these consistent differentials and the limited remaining campaign window for major shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$2,694
Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a tight multi-party contest, with CDU support holding steady near 19-20% and AfD in the high teens, typically trailing or level with CDU and Linke. CDU benefits from its position as the largest party in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner and from structural advantages in Berlin's electorate compared to AfD's stronger eastern state performance. AfD gains nationally have lifted its Berlin numbers into contention for the first time, yet recent surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap indicate CDU maintains a modest edge over AfD. Trader pricing at 67.5% for CDU reflects these consistent differentials and the limited remaining campaign window for major shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$2,694
Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Verwandte

icon for Berliner Landtagswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder SPD?

Berliner Landtagswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder SPD?

90%
CDU
icon for Berliner Landeswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder Linke?

Berliner Landeswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder Linke?

49%
CDU
icon for Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder Grüne?

Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder Grüne?

79%
CDU

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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