Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No," reflecting the March 31, 2026, deadline's expiration without all required incidents across AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare. AWS logged "disrupted" severity outages on its Health Dashboard in Middle East regions due to physical damage from conflict and drone strikes, but Discord's issues peaked at "Major" (orange) status without escalating to Critical (red), and Cloudflare reported no resolved Critical (red) incidents during the period. Post-deadline events—like AWS's May 7 US-East-1 thermal outage and Discord's May 8 API errors—do not qualify. Realistic upset risks include rare retroactive severity reclassifications on official status pages or oracle disputes, though independent infrastructure resilience and historical patterns make these improbable ahead of final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$14,339 Vol.
$14,339 Vol.
Ja
$14,339 Vol.
$14,339 Vol.
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No," reflecting the March 31, 2026, deadline's expiration without all required incidents across AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare. AWS logged "disrupted" severity outages on its Health Dashboard in Middle East regions due to physical damage from conflict and drone strikes, but Discord's issues peaked at "Major" (orange) status without escalating to Critical (red), and Cloudflare reported no resolved Critical (red) incidents during the period. Post-deadline events—like AWS's May 7 US-East-1 thermal outage and Discord's May 8 API errors—do not qualify. Realistic upset risks include rare retroactive severity reclassifications on official status pages or oracle disputes, though independent infrastructure resilience and historical patterns make these improbable ahead of final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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