Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWas wird der S&P 500 (SPX) Ende 2026 schließen?
Was wird der S&P 500 (SPX) Ende 2026 schließen?
$7.000–$7.500 29%
$7.500–$8.000 16%
$6.000-$6.500 15%
6.500–7.000 15%
$25,057 Vol.
$25,057 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Unter 6.000
14%
$6.000-$6.500
25%
6.500–7.000
25%
$7.000–$7.500
28%
$7.500–$8.000
16%
>8.000 $
13%
$7.000–$7.500 29%
$7.500–$8.000 16%
$6.000-$6.500 15%
6.500–7.000 15%
$25,057 Vol.
$25,057 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Unter 6.000
$15,544 Vol.
14%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,429 Vol.
25%
6.500–7.000
$2,389 Vol.
25%
$7.000–$7.500
$1,114 Vol.
28%
$7.500–$8.000
$2,289 Vol.
16%
>8.000 $
$2,293 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$25,057Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$25,057Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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