Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he intends to serve through at least the upcoming Court term has anchored trader expectations against a 2026 vacancy. At 76, Alito directly addressed and dismissed retirement speculation that followed an erroneous June NPR report, while 78-year-old Clarence Thomas has shown no public signs of stepping down. The remaining seven justices are younger and have given no indication of departure. With the next presidential inauguration not until 2029 and Senate confirmation dynamics uncertain after the November midterms, these statements and the absence of health or resignation developments have produced the current 76.5% implied probability that no vacancy will arise before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
24% Chance
$19,118 Vol.
$19,118 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
24% Chance
$19,118 Vol.
$19,118 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he intends to serve through at least the upcoming Court term has anchored trader expectations against a 2026 vacancy. At 76, Alito directly addressed and dismissed retirement speculation that followed an erroneous June NPR report, while 78-year-old Clarence Thomas has shown no public signs of stepping down. The remaining seven justices are younger and have given no indication of departure. With the next presidential inauguration not until 2029 and Senate confirmation dynamics uncertain after the November midterms, these statements and the absence of health or resignation developments have produced the current 76.5% implied probability that no vacancy will arise before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volumen
$19,118Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he intends to serve through at least the upcoming Court term has anchored trader expectations against a 2026 vacancy. At 76, Alito directly addressed and dismissed retirement speculation that followed an erroneous June NPR report, while 78-year-old Clarence Thomas has shown no public signs of stepping down. The remaining seven justices are younger and have given no indication of departure. With the next presidential inauguration not until 2029 and Senate confirmation dynamics uncertain after the November midterms, these statements and the absence of health or resignation developments have produced the current 76.5% implied probability that no vacancy will arise before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$19,118Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he intends to serve through at least the upcoming Court term has anchored trader expectations against a 2026 vacancy. At 76, Alito directly addressed and dismissed retirement speculation that followed an erroneous June NPR report, while 78-year-old Clarence Thomas has shown no public signs of stepping down. The remaining seven justices are younger and have given no indication of departure. With the next presidential inauguration not until 2029 and Senate confirmation dynamics uncertain after the November midterms, these statements and the absence of health or resignation developments have produced the current 76.5% implied probability that no vacancy will arise before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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