**The current 75.5% trader consensus favoring no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 rests primarily on explicit signals from the two oldest justices.** Samuel Alito, 76, confirmed in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview that he is “here for another term,” having hired clerks for the October 2026–June 2027 session and dismissing retirement pressure. Clarence Thomas, 78, has likewise shown no departure plans, with reporting on extended clerk hires. The typical late-June or early-July retirement window passed without announcements, and the remaining seven justices—none older than 72—have issued no contrary signals. No health events or official statements have altered this outlook as of mid-September. These developments, set against the justices’ demonstrated longevity and lifetime tenure norms, underpin the market’s assessment that the nine-member bench will remain intact through December 31.