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Earnings·TSM

Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

icon for Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?
Earnings·TSM

Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

Juli 16

Juli 16

90% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
90% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.TSMC's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release on July 16 carries elevated consensus expectations following its Q1 beat, where revenue reached $35.9 billion and gross margins expanded to 66.2% amid robust AI-driven demand for advanced nodes. The company guided Q2 revenue at $39.0–40.2 billion—aligning closely with analyst estimates near $39.5–40.0 billion—and maintained full-year growth above 30%, with capital spending at the high end of prior ranges. Recent monthly sales trends and continued semiconductor sector momentum have priced in strong sequential gains, yet the 55.5% market-implied probability favoring a miss or in-line result reflects the high bar set by prior outperformance and potential volatility around exact EPS delivery or margin realization. Upcoming catalysts include the July 10 monthly sales update and any shifts in broader chip demand signals.

As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volumen
$165
Enddatum
16. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.TSMC's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release on July 16 carries elevated consensus expectations following its Q1 beat, where revenue reached $35.9 billion and gross margins expanded to 66.2% amid robust AI-driven demand for advanced nodes. The company guided Q2 revenue at $39.0–40.2 billion—aligning closely with analyst estimates near $39.5–40.0 billion—and maintained full-year growth above 30%, with capital spending at the high end of prior ranges. Recent monthly sales trends and continued semiconductor sector momentum have priced in strong sequential gains, yet the 55.5% market-implied probability favoring a miss or in-line result reflects the high bar set by prior outperformance and potential volatility around exact EPS delivery or margin realization. Upcoming catalysts include the July 10 monthly sales update and any shifts in broader chip demand signals.

As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volumen
$165
Enddatum
16. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

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„Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 2, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" liegt bei 90% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 90% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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