Anthropic’s April release of Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored the 91% market-implied probability that it will hold the top AI model spot by end of May, thanks to leading results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and strong gains in agentic reasoning, instruction following, and self-verification on complex tasks. Traders see the model’s consistent edge in real-world workflows and developer adoption as durable through the short remaining window, especially while more advanced internal systems like Mythos stay limited. A last-minute update from Google’s Gemini lineup or OpenAI could still shift the outcome if it surpasses current leaderboards, though no such release has been confirmed.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,982,172 Vol.
$8,982,172 Vol.

Anthropic
91%

8%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,982,172 Vol.
$8,982,172 Vol.

Anthropic
91%

8%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s April release of Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored the 91% market-implied probability that it will hold the top AI model spot by end of May, thanks to leading results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and strong gains in agentic reasoning, instruction following, and self-verification on complex tasks. Traders see the model’s consistent edge in real-world workflows and developer adoption as durable through the short remaining window, especially while more advanced internal systems like Mythos stay limited. A last-minute update from Google’s Gemini lineup or OpenAI could still shift the outcome if it surpasses current leaderboards, though no such release has been confirmed.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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