Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 90%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,835,606 Vol.
$8,835,606 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
90%
11%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,835,606 Vol.
$8,835,606 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$651,180 Vol.
90%
$601,475 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$747,759 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$552,600 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$521,785 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$522,814 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$666,292 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$557,756 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,923 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$403,756 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$413,851 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$8,835,606Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$8,835,606Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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