Recent benchmark leadership from Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview has driven trader consensus toward the company holding the top large language model by month-end. Independent evaluations released in early May show clear gains in reasoning, coding, and natural language tasks over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, reinforcing Anthropic’s current edge in capability demonstrations. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of announced competing releases from other labs before June has further consolidated market-implied odds. Traders are watching for any surprise model drops or updated third-party evaluations that could shift positioning before the resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 89%
Google 10%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,870,651 Vol.
$8,870,651 Vol.

Anthropic
89%

10%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 10%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,870,651 Vol.
$8,870,651 Vol.

Anthropic
89%

10%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership from Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview has driven trader consensus toward the company holding the top large language model by month-end. Independent evaluations released in early May show clear gains in reasoning, coding, and natural language tasks over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, reinforcing Anthropic’s current edge in capability demonstrations. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of announced competing releases from other labs before June has further consolidated market-implied odds. Traders are watching for any surprise model drops or updated third-party evaluations that could shift positioning before the resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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