El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic activity in 2026, with NOAA’s August update forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season alongside a 75% chance of below-normal activity. As of mid-August only three weak tropical storms have formed, producing minimal Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Colorado State University’s latest outlook assigns just a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term average of 43%, citing persistent high wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns through the peak months. These verified model consensus and observational trends underpin the market’s strong preference for no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Ja
16% Chance
$340,142 Vol.
$340,142 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
16% Chance
$340,142 Vol.
$340,142 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic activity in 2026, with NOAA’s August update forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season alongside a 75% chance of below-normal activity. As of mid-August only three weak tropical storms have formed, producing minimal Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Colorado State University’s latest outlook assigns just a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term average of 43%, citing persistent high wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns through the peak months. These verified model consensus and observational trends underpin the market’s strong preference for no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$340,142Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic activity in 2026, with NOAA’s August update forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season alongside a 75% chance of below-normal activity. As of mid-August only three weak tropical storms have formed, producing minimal Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Colorado State University’s latest outlook assigns just a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term average of 43%, citing persistent high wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns through the peak months. These verified model consensus and observational trends underpin the market’s strong preference for no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$340,142Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic activity in 2026, with NOAA’s August update forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season alongside a 75% chance of below-normal activity. As of mid-August only three weak tropical storms have formed, producing minimal Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Colorado State University’s latest outlook assigns just a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, well below the long-term average of 43%, citing persistent high wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns through the peak months. These verified model consensus and observational trends underpin the market’s strong preference for no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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