Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, great quakes (M8.5+) occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent. Recent Colorado State University and early NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño ENSO conditions, curbing June–November intensification risks; watch NOAA's May 21 seasonal update and ongoing USGS/NHC monitoring for potential shifts in model consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$217,920 Vol.
$217,920 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$217,920 Vol.
$217,920 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, great quakes (M8.5+) occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent. Recent Colorado State University and early NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño ENSO conditions, curbing June–November intensification risks; watch NOAA's May 21 seasonal update and ongoing USGS/NHC monitoring for potential shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$217,920Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, great quakes (M8.5+) occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent. Recent Colorado State University and early NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño ENSO conditions, curbing June–November intensification risks; watch NOAA's May 21 seasonal update and ongoing USGS/NHC monitoring for potential shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$217,920Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, great quakes (M8.5+) occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent. Recent Colorado State University and early NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño ENSO conditions, curbing June–November intensification risks; watch NOAA's May 21 seasonal update and ongoing USGS/NHC monitoring for potential shifts in model consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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