Trader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability for Yes on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by five months of stability without triggers like President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Russian NATO incursion, Trump acquiring Greenland, or catastrophic events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent de-escalations—a May 9 Ukraine truce easing invasion fears and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets falling short of ground invasion—bolster this positioning, with Bitcoin steady near $80,000. Risks linger from today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where GOP Senate gains could yield a supermajority trifecta.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Nichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
$557,242 Vol.
$557,242 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$557,242 Vol.
$557,242 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability for Yes on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by five months of stability without triggers like President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Russian NATO incursion, Trump acquiring Greenland, or catastrophic events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent de-escalations—a May 9 Ukraine truce easing invasion fears and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets falling short of ground invasion—bolster this positioning, with Bitcoin steady near $80,000. Risks linger from today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where GOP Senate gains could yield a supermajority trifecta.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$557,242Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability for Yes on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by five months of stability without triggers like President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Russian NATO incursion, Trump acquiring Greenland, or catastrophic events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent de-escalations—a May 9 Ukraine truce easing invasion fears and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets falling short of ground invasion—bolster this positioning, with Bitcoin steady near $80,000. Risks linger from today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where GOP Senate gains could yield a supermajority trifecta.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$557,242Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability for Yes on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by five months of stability without triggers like President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Russian NATO incursion, Trump acquiring Greenland, or catastrophic events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent de-escalations—a May 9 Ukraine truce easing invasion fears and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets falling short of ground invasion—bolster this positioning, with Bitcoin steady near $80,000. Risks linger from today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where GOP Senate gains could yield a supermajority trifecta.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen