Traders assign roughly 80% implied probability that none of the market's specified triggers—such as presidential or major-leader resignations, extreme Bitcoin price moves, or catastrophic natural disasters—will materialize through the end of 2026. This consensus reflects the absence of fresh escalations in ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the earlier U.S.-Iran conflict and related leadership transitions, alongside contained legislative activity and no immediate signs of economic or institutional upheaval. Midterm primaries and routine executive actions have proceeded without triggering listed thresholds, while scheduled votes and diplomatic timelines through December show limited potential to shift outcomes dramatically. The pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds in related markets, where incremental policy and diplomatic developments have failed to produce the scale of disruption required for "No" resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Nichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
80% Chance
$724,624 Vol.
$724,624 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
80% Chance
$724,624 Vol.
$724,624 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign roughly 80% implied probability that none of the market's specified triggers—such as presidential or major-leader resignations, extreme Bitcoin price moves, or catastrophic natural disasters—will materialize through the end of 2026. This consensus reflects the absence of fresh escalations in ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the earlier U.S.-Iran conflict and related leadership transitions, alongside contained legislative activity and no immediate signs of economic or institutional upheaval. Midterm primaries and routine executive actions have proceeded without triggering listed thresholds, while scheduled votes and diplomatic timelines through December show limited potential to shift outcomes dramatically. The pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds in related markets, where incremental policy and diplomatic developments have failed to produce the scale of disruption required for "No" resolution.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$724,624Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign roughly 80% implied probability that none of the market's specified triggers—such as presidential or major-leader resignations, extreme Bitcoin price moves, or catastrophic natural disasters—will materialize through the end of 2026. This consensus reflects the absence of fresh escalations in ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the earlier U.S.-Iran conflict and related leadership transitions, alongside contained legislative activity and no immediate signs of economic or institutional upheaval. Midterm primaries and routine executive actions have proceeded without triggering listed thresholds, while scheduled votes and diplomatic timelines through December show limited potential to shift outcomes dramatically. The pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds in related markets, where incremental policy and diplomatic developments have failed to produce the scale of disruption required for "No" resolution.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$724,624Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign roughly 80% implied probability that none of the market's specified triggers—such as presidential or major-leader resignations, extreme Bitcoin price moves, or catastrophic natural disasters—will materialize through the end of 2026. This consensus reflects the absence of fresh escalations in ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the earlier U.S.-Iran conflict and related leadership transitions, alongside contained legislative activity and no immediate signs of economic or institutional upheaval. Midterm primaries and routine executive actions have proceeded without triggering listed thresholds, while scheduled votes and diplomatic timelines through December show limited potential to shift outcomes dramatically. The pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds in related markets, where incremental policy and diplomatic developments have failed to produce the scale of disruption required for "No" resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen