NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, consistent with the low baseline rate of such events—roughly once every few decades on average for meter-scale impactors. Enhanced detection networks, including recent close approaches by small asteroids like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3, have all been confirmed as safe flybys with refined orbits ruling out impact. Modest upticks in observed fireballs early in the year reflect improved tracking rather than elevated risk. With the year more than halfway complete and no credible threats identified, trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects the absence of detectable precursors and the reliability of current planetary defense capabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
12% Chance
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
12% Chance
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, consistent with the low baseline rate of such events—roughly once every few decades on average for meter-scale impactors. Enhanced detection networks, including recent close approaches by small asteroids like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3, have all been confirmed as safe flybys with refined orbits ruling out impact. Modest upticks in observed fireballs early in the year reflect improved tracking rather than elevated risk. With the year more than halfway complete and no credible threats identified, trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects the absence of detectable precursors and the reliability of current planetary defense capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$178,784Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, consistent with the low baseline rate of such events—roughly once every few decades on average for meter-scale impactors. Enhanced detection networks, including recent close approaches by small asteroids like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3, have all been confirmed as safe flybys with refined orbits ruling out impact. Modest upticks in observed fireballs early in the year reflect improved tracking rather than elevated risk. With the year more than halfway complete and no credible threats identified, trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects the absence of detectable precursors and the reliability of current planetary defense capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$178,784Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, consistent with the low baseline rate of such events—roughly once every few decades on average for meter-scale impactors. Enhanced detection networks, including recent close approaches by small asteroids like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3, have all been confirmed as safe flybys with refined orbits ruling out impact. Modest upticks in observed fireballs early in the year reflect improved tracking rather than elevated risk. With the year more than halfway complete and no credible threats identified, trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects the absence of detectable precursors and the reliability of current planetary defense capabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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