NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system show no large near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with only negligible risks below 0.004% for tiny asteroids. Enhanced detection networks have logged numerous small fireballs this year, yet none approach the 10-kiloton threshold, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event per decade. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD, underscore effective planetary defense tracking without elevating impact odds. Traders price the "No" outcome at 83% because undetected objects remain the primary uncertainty, though ongoing satellite and infrasound surveillance continues to narrow that tail risk through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$153,583 Vol.
$153,583 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$153,583 Vol.
$153,583 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system show no large near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with only negligible risks below 0.004% for tiny asteroids. Enhanced detection networks have logged numerous small fireballs this year, yet none approach the 10-kiloton threshold, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event per decade. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD, underscore effective planetary defense tracking without elevating impact odds. Traders price the "No" outcome at 83% because undetected objects remain the primary uncertainty, though ongoing satellite and infrasound surveillance continues to narrow that tail risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$153,583Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system show no large near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with only negligible risks below 0.004% for tiny asteroids. Enhanced detection networks have logged numerous small fireballs this year, yet none approach the 10-kiloton threshold, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event per decade. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD, underscore effective planetary defense tracking without elevating impact odds. Traders price the "No" outcome at 83% because undetected objects remain the primary uncertainty, though ongoing satellite and infrasound surveillance continues to narrow that tail risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$153,583Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system show no large near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with only negligible risks below 0.004% for tiny asteroids. Enhanced detection networks have logged numerous small fireballs this year, yet none approach the 10-kiloton threshold, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event per decade. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD, underscore effective planetary defense tracking without elevating impact odds. Traders price the "No" outcome at 83% because undetected objects remain the primary uncertainty, though ongoing satellite and infrasound surveillance continues to narrow that tail risk through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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