NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses for 2026, driving the 88.5% market-implied odds for no major strike. Ongoing surveys show zero significant threats over the coming century, consistent with the extreme rarity of 10kt+ events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Recent small fireballs, such as the March 2026 Ohio incident involving a roughly 2-meter object, underscore that detected near-Earth objects remain far below hazardous thresholds. Planetary defense networks continue refining orbits with no resolution catalysts expected before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
12% Chance
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
12% Chance
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses for 2026, driving the 88.5% market-implied odds for no major strike. Ongoing surveys show zero significant threats over the coming century, consistent with the extreme rarity of 10kt+ events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Recent small fireballs, such as the March 2026 Ohio incident involving a roughly 2-meter object, underscore that detected near-Earth objects remain far below hazardous thresholds. Planetary defense networks continue refining orbits with no resolution catalysts expected before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$178,784Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses for 2026, driving the 88.5% market-implied odds for no major strike. Ongoing surveys show zero significant threats over the coming century, consistent with the extreme rarity of 10kt+ events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Recent small fireballs, such as the March 2026 Ohio incident involving a roughly 2-meter object, underscore that detected near-Earth objects remain far below hazardous thresholds. Planetary defense networks continue refining orbits with no resolution catalysts expected before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$178,784Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses for 2026, driving the 88.5% market-implied odds for no major strike. Ongoing surveys show zero significant threats over the coming century, consistent with the extreme rarity of 10kt+ events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Recent small fireballs, such as the March 2026 Ohio incident involving a roughly 2-meter object, underscore that detected near-Earth objects remain far below hazardous thresholds. Planetary defense networks continue refining orbits with no resolution catalysts expected before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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