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icon for Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Wetter

Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?

icon for Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Wetter

Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?

Ja

11% Chance
Polymarket

$135,286 Vol.

Ja

11% Chance
Polymarket

$135,286 Vol.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$135,286
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$135,286
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA auf Land treffen?" mit 11%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 11¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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