Strong El Niño conditions developing across the Pacific are suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated wind shear and altered steering patterns, underpinning trader consensus that no Category 5 hurricane will reach U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity overall, while Colorado State University and others similarly forecast reduced major-hurricane counts and only a 20–24% probability of any U.S. major landfall. Through mid-August the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, far below climatological norms. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare even in active seasons, as most systems weaken below that threshold before reaching the coast. With peak months still ahead but unfavorable large-scale conditions persisting, the market-implied odds reflect these measurable environmental constraints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 5 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Ja
12% Chance
$139,433 Vol.
$139,433 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
12% Chance
$139,433 Vol.
$139,433 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions developing across the Pacific are suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated wind shear and altered steering patterns, underpinning trader consensus that no Category 5 hurricane will reach U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity overall, while Colorado State University and others similarly forecast reduced major-hurricane counts and only a 20–24% probability of any U.S. major landfall. Through mid-August the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, far below climatological norms. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare even in active seasons, as most systems weaken below that threshold before reaching the coast. With peak months still ahead but unfavorable large-scale conditions persisting, the market-implied odds reflect these measurable environmental constraints.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$139,433Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions developing across the Pacific are suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated wind shear and altered steering patterns, underpinning trader consensus that no Category 5 hurricane will reach U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity overall, while Colorado State University and others similarly forecast reduced major-hurricane counts and only a 20–24% probability of any U.S. major landfall. Through mid-August the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, far below climatological norms. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare even in active seasons, as most systems weaken below that threshold before reaching the coast. With peak months still ahead but unfavorable large-scale conditions persisting, the market-implied odds reflect these measurable environmental constraints.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$139,433Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions developing across the Pacific are suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated wind shear and altered steering patterns, underpinning trader consensus that no Category 5 hurricane will reach U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes for the season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity overall, while Colorado State University and others similarly forecast reduced major-hurricane counts and only a 20–24% probability of any U.S. major landfall. Through mid-August the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, far below climatological norms. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare even in active seasons, as most systems weaken below that threshold before reaching the coast. With peak months still ahead but unfavorable large-scale conditions persisting, the market-implied odds reflect these measurable environmental constraints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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