Recent elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes—over 1,200 positive pools detected by mid-August, nearly double last year’s pace—has raised transmission risk, prompting eight targeted control operations since July. This follows a first human case confirmed August 19 in a resident exposed both locally and externally. Neuroinvasive disease averages rose from 16 cases annually (2012–2021) to 31 (2022–2025) per NYC Health Department data, aligning with national trends showing 156 neuroinvasive cases among 222 total U.S. infections as of August 18. Mosquito surveillance began positive pools in mid-June, consistent with prior seasons, while cooler or wetter late-summer conditions could extend the transmission window through fall. Traders weigh these surveillance signals and recent baseline increases against ongoing larviciding and public precautions, producing closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-20, 20–34, and higher bins as case counts remain early and weather-dependent.