A strengthening super El Niño, with NOAA indicating over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall and winter 2026-27, serves as the main catalyst for trader sentiment on August 2026 global temperatures. Recent data show June at 1.09°C above the long-term average (second-warmest on record) and July tied for second-warmest globally, while early August daily readings have hit record highs amid the developing Pacific warmth. Model consensus points to continued warming from the event's lag effects, though monthly outcomes in the 1.30–1.45°C range reflect uncertainty in final observational adjustments from agencies like NOAA and NASA, plus variability in how the remainder of August unfolds. Key upcoming releases include the full August global temperature bulletins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAugust 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC) (HÖHERE STREIKS)
August 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC) (HÖHERE STREIKS)
1.34–1.37ºC 47%
>1.45ºC 46%
1.38–1.41ºC 46%
1.42–1.45ºC 45%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
44%
1.34–1.37ºC
47%
1.38–1.41ºC
46%
1.42–1.45ºC
45%
>1.45ºC
46%
1.34–1.37ºC 47%
>1.45ºC 46%
1.38–1.41ºC 46%
1.42–1.45ºC 45%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
44%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
47%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
46%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
45%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening super El Niño, with NOAA indicating over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall and winter 2026-27, serves as the main catalyst for trader sentiment on August 2026 global temperatures. Recent data show June at 1.09°C above the long-term average (second-warmest on record) and July tied for second-warmest globally, while early August daily readings have hit record highs amid the developing Pacific warmth. Model consensus points to continued warming from the event's lag effects, though monthly outcomes in the 1.30–1.45°C range reflect uncertainty in final observational adjustments from agencies like NOAA and NASA, plus variability in how the remainder of August unfolds. Key upcoming releases include the full August global temperature bulletins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening super El Niño, with NOAA indicating over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall and winter 2026-27, serves as the main catalyst for trader sentiment on August 2026 global temperatures. Recent data show June at 1.09°C above the long-term average (second-warmest on record) and July tied for second-warmest globally, while early August daily readings have hit record highs amid the developing Pacific warmth. Model consensus points to continued warming from the event's lag effects, though monthly outcomes in the 1.30–1.45°C range reflect uncertainty in final observational adjustments from agencies like NOAA and NASA, plus variability in how the remainder of August unfolds. Key upcoming releases include the full August global temperature bulletins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening super El Niño, with NOAA indicating over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall and winter 2026-27, serves as the main catalyst for trader sentiment on August 2026 global temperatures. Recent data show June at 1.09°C above the long-term average (second-warmest on record) and July tied for second-warmest globally, while early August daily readings have hit record highs amid the developing Pacific warmth. Model consensus points to continued warming from the event's lag effects, though monthly outcomes in the 1.30–1.45°C range reflect uncertainty in final observational adjustments from agencies like NOAA and NASA, plus variability in how the remainder of August unfolds. Key upcoming releases include the full August global temperature bulletins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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