With 10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded through mid-August 2026—slightly below the long-term global average of roughly 15 per year—trader consensus centers on the 14–16 range at 43% implied probability. Remaining months introduce substantial variability, as seismic events follow irregular patterns driven by stress accumulation along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and other plate boundaries. Year-to-year fluctuations are common, with no current indicators of elevated or suppressed activity from USGS monitoring. The closely matched 17–19 outcome at 37.5% reflects uncertainty over whether late-year clustering or typical rates will prevail before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben mit einer Stärke von 7,0 oder mehr im Jahr 2026?
14–16 43%
17–19 37%
20+ 11.5%
11–13 10%
$1,374,529 Vol.
$1,374,529 Vol.
8–10
1%
11–13
10%
14–16
43%
17–19
37%
20+
12%
14–16 43%
17–19 37%
20+ 11.5%
11–13 10%
$1,374,529 Vol.
$1,374,529 Vol.
8–10
1%
11–13
10%
14–16
43%
17–19
37%
20+
12%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded through mid-August 2026—slightly below the long-term global average of roughly 15 per year—trader consensus centers on the 14–16 range at 43% implied probability. Remaining months introduce substantial variability, as seismic events follow irregular patterns driven by stress accumulation along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and other plate boundaries. Year-to-year fluctuations are common, with no current indicators of elevated or suppressed activity from USGS monitoring. The closely matched 17–19 outcome at 37.5% reflects uncertainty over whether late-year clustering or typical rates will prevail before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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