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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

icon for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16 38%

17–19 23%

11–13 22%

20+ 7.3%

Polymarket

$1,331,497 Vol.

14–16 38%

17–19 23%

11–13 22%

20+ 7.3%

Polymarket

$1,331,497 Vol.

5–7

$79,488 Vol.

1%

8–10

$134,483 Vol.

3%

11–13

$412,147 Vol.

22%

14–16

$186,631 Vol.

38%

17–19

$211,125 Vol.

23%

20+

$64,684 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,331,497
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,331,497
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „14–16" mit 38%, gefolgt von „17–19" mit 23%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 38¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" ist „14–16" mit 38%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „17–19" mit 23%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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